On January 22 the Winnipeg Realtors held their 2014 Forecast Breakfast. Market Analyst Peter Squire reviewed 2013 and gave his annual predictions. Still looks slow and steady although condos have been on the move.
Winnipeg 2014 Forecast:
| Sales Type | Forecast |
| Home Sales | +0 to 2% |
| Home Prices | +2 to 4% |
| Condo prices | +6 to 8% |
| Total MLS Dollar Volume | +3 to 5% |
And if you are wondering how well his crystal ball worked for the past year, here’s a review:
| Forecast Scorecard | 2013 Forecast | 2013 Actual |
| Home Sales | -4 to 0% | -2.1% |
| Home prices | 2 to 4% | 5% |
| Condo Prices | 4 to 6% | 9% |
| Total MLS Dollar Volume | -2 to 2% | 5% |
CMHC’s annual Manitoba Housing Outlook conference was held February 19th at the Delta Winnipeg. No “hard landing” in sight.
Lai Sing Louie and Pichu Kalyniuk presented the Manitoba region picture. The Thompson and Portage la Prairie areas both experienced negative net migration which resulted in small price declines in contrast to Brandon and Winnipeg which experienced 5 to 6% MLS price growth for 2013.
Manitoba Housing Forecast-New Construction:
| Housing Starts | 2013 | 2014 forecast | % chg (2013/2014) | 2015 forecast | % chg (2014/2015) |
| Single-Detached | 3,820 | 3,600 | -5.8 | 3,700 | 2.8 |
| Multiple | 3,645 | 3,200 | -12.2 | 3,200 | 0.0 |
| Total | 7,465 | 6,800 | -8.9 | 6,900 | 1.5 |
Manitoba Housing Forecast-Resale Market:
| 2013 | 2014 forecast | % chg (2013/2014) | 2015 forecast | % chg (2014/2015) | |
| MLS Sales | 13,797 | 14,000 | 1.5 | 14,200 | 1.4 |
| MLS Avg. Price | $259,949 | $267,000 | 2.7 | $274,300 | 2.7 |
Dianne Himbeault, CMHC’s Senior Market Analyst for Winnipeg presented the outlook for the Winnipeg market. Note predicted multi-family vacancy continues to creep up.
Winnipeg:
| 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | |
| New Home Market | ||||
| Single-detached starts | 2,129 | 2,218 | 2,125 | 2,200 |
| Multi-family starts | 1,936 | 2,487 | 2,300 | 2,400 |
| Average Price Single-detached | $402,463 | $420,456 | $433,000 | $446,000 |
| New House Price Index(% chg.) | 4.2 | 5.0 | 4.3 | 4.2 |
| Resale Market | ||||
| Total sales | 12,094 | 12,088 | 12,250 | 12,400 |
| Average Price | $255,059 | $268,382 | $277,000 | $285,000 |
| Rental Market | ||||
| Vacancy Rate(%) | 1.7 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 3.0 |
| Two-bedroom Rent | $911 | $969 | $1,010 | $1,035 |
| Economic Overview | ||||
| Annual Employment Level | 417,400 | 419,100 | 424,100 | 430,100 |
| Employment Growth(%) | 2.1 | 0.4 | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| Unemployment Rate (%) | 5.5 | 5.9 | 5.8 | 5.7 |
| Net Migration | 10,176 | 9,100 | 8,600 | 8,200 |
