Manitoba Housing Market Predictions:

On January 22 the Winnipeg Realtors held their 2014 Forecast Breakfast. Market Analyst Peter Squire reviewed 2013 and gave his annual predictions. Still looks slow and steady although condos have been on the move.

Winnipeg 2014 Forecast:

Sales Type Forecast
Home Sales +0 to 2%
Home Prices +2 to 4%
Condo prices +6 to 8%
Total MLS Dollar Volume +3 to 5%

 

And if you are wondering how well his crystal ball worked for the past year, here’s a review:

Forecast Scorecard 2013 Forecast 2013 Actual
Home Sales -4 to 0% -2.1%
Home prices 2 to 4% 5%
Condo Prices 4 to 6% 9%
Total MLS Dollar Volume -2 to 2% 5%

 

 

CMHC’s annual Manitoba Housing Outlook conference was held February 19th at the Delta Winnipeg. No “hard landing” in sight.

Lai Sing Louie and Pichu Kalyniuk presented the Manitoba region picture. The Thompson and Portage la Prairie areas both experienced negative net migration which resulted in small price declines in contrast to Brandon and Winnipeg which experienced 5 to 6% MLS price growth for 2013.

Manitoba Housing Forecast-New Construction:

Housing Starts 2013 2014 forecast % chg (2013/2014) 2015 forecast % chg (2014/2015)
Single-Detached 3,820 3,600 -5.8 3,700 2.8
Multiple 3,645 3,200 -12.2 3,200 0.0
Total 7,465 6,800 -8.9 6,900 1.5

 

Manitoba Housing Forecast-Resale Market:

2013 2014 forecast % chg (2013/2014) 2015 forecast % chg (2014/2015)
MLS Sales 13,797 14,000 1.5 14,200 1.4
MLS Avg. Price $259,949 $267,000 2.7 $274,300 2.7

 

 

Dianne Himbeault, CMHC’s Senior Market Analyst for Winnipeg presented the outlook for the Winnipeg market. Note predicted multi-family vacancy continues to creep up.

Winnipeg:

2012 2013 2014 2015
New Home Market
Single-detached starts 2,129 2,218 2,125 2,200
Multi-family starts 1,936 2,487 2,300 2,400
Average Price Single-detached $402,463 $420,456 $433,000 $446,000
New House Price Index(% chg.) 4.2 5.0 4.3 4.2
Resale Market
Total sales 12,094 12,088 12,250 12,400
Average Price $255,059 $268,382 $277,000 $285,000
Rental Market
Vacancy Rate(%) 1.7 2.5 2.8 3.0
Two-bedroom Rent $911 $969 $1,010 $1,035
Economic Overview
Annual Employment Level 417,400 419,100 424,100 430,100
Employment Growth(%) 2.1 0.4 1.2 1.4
Unemployment Rate (%) 5.5 5.9 5.8 5.7
Net Migration 10,176 9,100 8,600 8,200

 

 

 

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